According to the national news agency, Lebanon is also specifically concerned with Crypto Trader plans. The background: inflation in the country is high, as is the mountain of debt.

Efforts by central banks to launch digital national currencies (CBDC) are now being made around the globe. China in particular is very far ahead in an international comparison. Now there is another candidate, Lebanon, who has entered this race. The US news agency Bloomberg reported, citing the national news agency of Lebanon, that the digital currency is intended to strengthen “confidence” in the country’s banking system.

The national news agency of Lebanon quotes Governor Riad Salameh:

Lebanon has no natural resources and we must keep the gold because it is an asset that could be liquidated in foreign markets if we face an inevitable, fateful crisis

The project should also according to other media reportsto be launched in 2021. Salameh already mentioned in 2019 that Lebanon was planning a CBDC project. At that time, the aim of the project was to provide the local economy with a purely cashless transaction system. At the time, however, concerns about money laundering and security had not yet been addressed.

Lebanon has been thinking about CBDC for some time

Last OctoberParliament in Lebanon passed a law on electronic transactions and personal data. Article 61 of this law contains the first official mention of “electronic and cryptocurrencies” in a case law text. Parliament evaded this question by giving the central bank full responsibility for establishing a legal framework for these currencies.

The Lebanese pound is currently struggling with drastic inflation. Lebanon is one of the most heavily indebted countries of all. Against this background, the effort to spread a CBDC appears to be a more or less desperate attempt to stop this downward trend.

The situation in the North African state is nowhere near as dire as it is in Venezuela . There the bolívar often sinks in the course of the day and leads a more or less worthless shadowy existence. The success of the Petro, the oil-backed Venezuelan digital currency, is also a long time coming.

As of October, the Bahamas became the first state in the world to officially and comprehensively issue a CBDC. The 393,000 inhabitants of the island state can thus fall back on the “sand dollar” baptized currency. It is pegged 1: 1 to the Bahamian dollar, which in turn is pegged 1: 1 to the US dollar rate.

China’s digital yuan pilot programme is gaining speed.

The president of China’s central bank has given more details about the ongoing digital currency pilot in the country.

Yi Gang, the president of the People’s Bank of China, said the digital yuan pilots have processed more than four million transactions to date, totaling more than 2 billion yuan (US$299 million). The official made those latest comments at the Hong Kong Fintech Week conference on Nov. 2, Bloomberg reported.

According to Yi, the pilots are doing well so far, having conducted major tests in four cities.

The growing demand for digital and contactless payment methods crypto profit in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic has presented major challenges for central banks, which are trying to reconcile user security with convenience, Yi said.

He noted that fintechs have some important advantages over commercial banks in terms of building a customer base and managing risk.

The PBoC launched the first pilots for its future digital yuan in April 2020. The initial test would have included four major cities: Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou and Xiongan. The programme was expanded to nine cities, including Guangzhou, Hong Kong and Macao.

In early October, the PBoC officially announced that the yuan digital wallets processed US$162 million in transactions between April and August 2020.

Large technology companies have already begun to prepare for the apparently inevitable launch of digital yuan. Huawei recently announced that its newest smartphone, Mate40, will have a wallet for the currency and will allow users to transact with it even when they are offline.

Bitcoin market capitalization is overtaking the money bases of many countries. The Canadian dollar is arguably next.

When Bitcoin ( BTC ) broke the $ 14,000 mark, its market capitalization surged above the monetary base of the Russian ruble .

This includes both physical currency and bank reserves, which are usually held by a country’s central banks

The above chart may seem complicated at first, but it only compares gold, silver, bitcoin and the rest of the global money bases. We can see that the US is 4.9 trillion. Holding US dollars in physical notes, coins and bank deposits at the US Federal Reserve. If we divide that number by the current 18.5 million BTC, we get to the above $ 263,000.

For Bitcoin’s market capitalization to match the US monetary base, the price would have to be above $ 263,000. At first glance, that seems far-fetched. But BTC has already overshadowed several currencies, such as the Brazilian real, the Swedish krona and the South Korean won.

For a cryptocurrency that’s only 11 years old, that’s no mean feat. According to Fernando Ulrich, the economist behind Crypto Voices, the 30 largest countries cover 95 percent of GDP with their base funds. In addition to the euro being the currency of many countries, some of the 113 leading countries have pegged their currencies to the US dollar.

The researchers at Crypto Voices therefore came to the conclusion:

“So far, the money monopoly ‘works’ for the central banks and their governments. It is practically free: Fiat has proven to be almost ‘independent’ of the gold market value.”
The researchers explained:

“As for #Bitcoin, if it gets big enough to appear on this chart and / or be held by central banks, then and only then will we get an idea of ​​what Bitcoin ‘costs’ central banks”.
Some people might interpret the analysis as pessimistic, but basically it’s just the opposite.

The researchers at Crypto Voices conclude that central banks and governments have previously been able to print money regardless of their gold holdings. So you don’t have to look for a new “gold standard” or something similar anytime soon.

According to the researchers, inflation is gradually depreciating fiat currencies. This caused Bitcoin to overtake a number of currencies as they were overprinted. In fact, 2020 saw the largest global monetary expansion ever.

Dan Held, the growth manager of the US crypto exchange Kraken, made a positive statement about the Bitcoin (BTC) price in an interview . He also explained the correlation of Bitcoin with the stock market and showed the current greatest risk for the cryptocurrency.

In the interview , Held stated that he assumed that the US central banks would continue to “print” large amounts of US dollars even under Joe Biden’s presidency. That would drive up the price of Bitcoin Evolution, which is known to be limited to 21 million pieces. Held assumed that the king of cryptocurrencies would reach the mark of 100,000 US dollars per coin in 2021.

So he said:

Currently only 0.1 percent of the world (…) really believe in it [in Bitcoin]. What if it’s 10% in the future? (…) That changes course (…). I believe 2021 will see Bitcoin and gold dwarf everything else.

Why did Bitcoin crash with the stock market?

At the beginning of the corona crisis, share prices fell dramatically. To the amazement of many cryptoanalysts, who had previously always claimed that Bitcoin was a “safe haven” and did not correlate with the stock market, the Bitcoin price also fell at this time.

Dan Held explained in an interview that the market still sees Bitcoin as a risk asset. Bitcoin is not yet as recognized as gold and therefore more like a share. In addition, there was a liquidity crisis at the time of the price crash. In order to have money quickly available, many investors would have sold assets, including Bitcoin. That let the course sink quickly.

The greatest risk to Bitcoin

When asked by the moderator, Held saw “paperization” as the greatest risk for Bitcoin. According to this, large companies could buy up significant amounts of Bitcoin and simply keep them in their ecosystem. The bitcoins would then only circulate there. This in turn would mean that all of these transactions would no longer be recorded on the blockchain.

It said:

Large companies could decide that they are not interested in Bitcoin Layer-1 or Bitcoin’s settlement processes and that they only want to settle with each other. That makes it pretty scary.

But Held also states that he thinks the Bitcoin system is good and that, in his opinion, there is a very substantial reason to give up.

Ils ont dit que l’adoption réelle de la classe d’actifs «n’a même pas commencé».

Les fondateurs de l’échange de crypto Gemini, Tyler et Cameron Winklevoss, ont déclaré que Bitcoin ( BTC ) atteindrait finalement 500000 dollars par pièce lors d’une récente interview avec l’hôte de podcast Peter McCormack

“La question dans notre esprit n’est pas tant de savoir si cela arrive à 500 000 $, mais à quelle vitesse”, a déclaré Tyler à McCormack lors de l’ épisode du podcast du 23 octobre . Sa thèse prend en compte la capitalisation boursière de l’or et l’allocation théorique de la banque centrale. “Je dirais en quelque sorte que 500 000 $ Bitcoin sont en fait assez conservateurs et que le jeu n’a même pas vraiment commencé”, a noté Cameron.

MicroStrategy et d’autres qui achètent des quantités importantes de Bitcoin pour leurs réserves de trésorerie semblent indiquer que le marché commence à changer. «Et si toutes les entreprises Fortune 100 ou 500 le faisaient, et si les banques centrales commençaient à le faire?»

Demanda Cameron. «Cela n’a même pas commencé», a-t-il ajouté, faisant une analogie avec le fait que Bitcoin est au bas du premier rang dans un match de baseball de neuf manches

«Wall Street n’est pas encore là. Les institutions ne sont pas en Bitcoin pour le moment. C’est un phénomène de vente au détail depuis dix ans. Alors Wall Street en parle, ils connaissent Bitcoin, mais ils n’y sont pas vraiment de notre point de vue, mais cela commence à se produire.
La base de l’interview était un rapport de Tyler et Cameron publié en août 2020, intitulé: The Case for $ 500K Bitcoin. Les frères ont commencé à rédiger le rapport en janvier 2020, a déclaré Cameron dans l’interview avec McCormack.

“Nous avons commencé à réfléchir à ce que le gouvernement a fait avec le dollar américain depuis une dizaine d’années et aux types traditionnels de réserves de valeur et de couvertures”, a expliqué Cameron. Les jumeaux ont interrompu le travail sur le rapport en mars lorsque COVID a pris pied dans le monde. Ils ont repris le journal plusieurs mois plus tard après avoir évalué les changements économiques provoqués par le virus.

Tyler a déclaré que lui et son frère avaient commencé à acheter du BTC en 2012. Une partie de la justification du rapport découlait de l’évaluation de la performance de l’actif dans l’économie environnante au cours de la dernière décennie.

Alors qu’un nombre croissant de prévisions haussières pour Bitcoin ont fait surface tout au long de 2020 , certaines sont restées sceptiques , comme le bug de l’or Peter Schiff.

The turmoil surrounding the major Bitmex exchange has caused some volatility in recent days, but bitcoin remains in a daily balancing pattern. Will it break out at $9,600 or towards $12,000?

Bitcoin rate weekly chart

On the weekly chart (figure 1) you can see that despite last week’s bullish hammer candlestick we are dropping this week. It is also clear that $11,150 is being rejected and is the main resistance to the bulls. As long as the price remains below this we can expect more bearish action.

What is Bitcoin Era going to do?

Support is in the 21EMA/golden pocket region at $10,100 – $10,200. If this is broken there is a good chance that the price will go back to the last bottom at $9,800.

If it loses as support a lower low is created and a weekly downtrend occurs. Next targets are the 50MA at $9.000 and the $8.800 support.

On the MACD you can also see that the blue line has crossed the red line downwards (white arrow) and that is bearish. The weekly cross does not happen often, but when it happens it continues. I will discuss this in more detail in a video analysis of this week.

In the bullish scenario, the bulls have to break the $11,150 and $11,500 and make support. A first step would be to close at the weekly above $10,500. As long as that doesn’t happen, I will remain bearish.

However, the volume is lower than average and decreasing. This is also reflected in a pattern that forms on the daily chart I discuss below.
Figure 1: The $11,150 bearish has been re-tested and the MACD has been bearishly crossed.
Bitcoin price daily chart

The daily chart (Figure 2) shows that the price has reached the target of the head and shoulders and then was rejected from the $11,150 neckline in a bearish re-test. The price then ended up in an equilibrium pattern on which you can draw a (yellow) triangle.

An outbreak from this will determine the further trend. The price can still see a small rise up to test the top of the triangle again before a side is chosen.

Bullish scenario

Short and powerful: to stay bullish, the bulls have to break out the triangle upwards and make support. To stay truly bullish, we need to make the $12,000 support.

Bearish scenario

In the bearish scenario, support is lost around $10,300 – $10,400 and the triangle breaks down. Targets are $9,800 and $9,500 – $9,600 and the bottom of the green rectangle is at $8,800. At $9,600 there is also a futures gap open.
Figure 2: The price is in an equilibrium pattern.
Bitcoin price 4 hour chart

On the 4 o’clock graph (figure 3) the bears have the upper hand. The price moves below the 200MA and the 12/26EMA. There is also a potential rising wedge forming a bearish pattern.

There is also a potential rising wedge forming a bearish pattern. The price is again below $10,600 which was the support before. Support is at $10,400. I see the price moving sideways again this weekend to get more volatility on Monday as the traditional markets open.

The rising wedge may still break out downwards but find support at the $10,400. If $10,400 breaks then there is a chance that the daily balance pattern will break out downwards.

If the bearish rising wedge does not play out and the $10,600 is broken the price could reach the top of the daily balance pattern again around $10,700 – $10,800.

The price levels to monitor are at least $10,400 and $10,600.
Figure 3: There is a potential rising wedge on the 4 o’clock.

I have been bearish for a number of weeks and that will only change a little when the price can rise above $11,150 again.

The balance pattern that now forms on the daily chart can break out either way, but I tend to be more bearish because of the correlation there is with traditional markets and the weekly bearish crossing of the MACD.

The traditional markets are discussed in the video analyses on YouTube.